You may not know that I’m a closet data junky. Maybe, it’s not as much of a secret as I’d like to think, but here are some numbers that keep me awake at night.
Shaquille O'Neal is one of the best basketball players in the past 25 years...The one thing about Shaq is that he can't hit a free throw, which should be the easiest shot to make...it is called a 'free throw'. If you were Shaquille O'Neal, you'd be excited about hitting 90% of your foul shots rather than the 58% that he hit in his career. Did you know that if Shaq hit 90% of his foul shots in his career so he would have scored 4,191 more points in his career? He would have scored more points than MJ!
But, we're not playing basketball...our jobs are much different and have a much larger impact on the future of our children and our communities. That said, often times in education we strive to maintain students on-grade level (using standardized benchmark assessments..ex. DIBELS) while still trying to increase the percent of students not on-grade level. So, in kindergarten, if we start with 100 students and end the year with 90 students on-grade level and 10 below-grade level, then as a team, you’re pretty psyched. Quite honestly, the kindergarten team should be really psyched because the varying pre-k educational backgrounds really come into play in kindergarten as teachers work so hard to ‘level the playing field’. Then, the 1st grade team gets this group of students and sets a goal of maintaining 90% at grade level (that were already on-grade level) and moving 20% students from below grade level to on grade level by the end of the year. At the end of the year, they are psyched because they met their goal! Woot woot!! However, at the end of the year, after keeping 90% on grade level and moving 20% of the kids that started below to on grade level, only 83 students are on grade level now. Uh oh! (feel free to insert expletive here). This pattern continues on for the next 11 years…let’s see what happens.
Shaquille O'Neal is one of the best basketball players in the past 25 years...The one thing about Shaq is that he can't hit a free throw, which should be the easiest shot to make...it is called a 'free throw'. If you were Shaquille O'Neal, you'd be excited about hitting 90% of your foul shots rather than the 58% that he hit in his career. Did you know that if Shaq hit 90% of his foul shots in his career so he would have scored 4,191 more points in his career? He would have scored more points than MJ!
But, we're not playing basketball...our jobs are much different and have a much larger impact on the future of our children and our communities. That said, often times in education we strive to maintain students on-grade level (using standardized benchmark assessments..ex. DIBELS) while still trying to increase the percent of students not on-grade level. So, in kindergarten, if we start with 100 students and end the year with 90 students on-grade level and 10 below-grade level, then as a team, you’re pretty psyched. Quite honestly, the kindergarten team should be really psyched because the varying pre-k educational backgrounds really come into play in kindergarten as teachers work so hard to ‘level the playing field’. Then, the 1st grade team gets this group of students and sets a goal of maintaining 90% at grade level (that were already on-grade level) and moving 20% students from below grade level to on grade level by the end of the year. At the end of the year, they are psyched because they met their goal! Woot woot!! However, at the end of the year, after keeping 90% on grade level and moving 20% of the kids that started below to on grade level, only 83 students are on grade level now. Uh oh! (feel free to insert expletive here). This pattern continues on for the next 11 years…let’s see what happens.
If this plays out in this sequence (maintain 90% of on-grade level and move 20% below-grade level up) over the next 11 years of school, then at the end of 12th grade approximately 37.5% of students are on-grade level and everyone along the way is pretty excited about how they are doing! But, wait…only 37.5% of students are on grade level and we all feel good about what we have done? I’m definitely confused…our kids deserve better. Actually, it kind of makes me vomit that only 37.5% of our kids are on-grade level after the thousands of hours of hard work that we just put in to help them be successful.
Well then, we have to work harder to move those kids up that are below-grade level! So, let's change our goal...if we try to maintain that 90% and move up 40% of the below-grade level students, then we will definitely change our 12th grade outcomes, right? That would be truly amazing...every year moving up 40% of students that are below grade level to on-grade level. We would probably be close to 100% by 12th grade....NOPE! ONLY 46% WOULD BE ON GRADE LEVEL BY 12TH GRADE! Let's think about this a little bit closer. Imagine that our 9th grade teachers in a school of 1,000 had 450 kids below-grade level and managed to get 180 on-grade level by the end of the year...wouldn't that be amazing! We would have 180 more graduates that would be so much better prepared for college and careers. It would impact our local economy by millions of dollars! But, every year it gets so much harder to move a student from below-grade level to on-grade level.
Let's flip it around…if we could maintain 98% at grade level and move 20% each year up from below to on by the end of the year. By the end of 12th grade, we would have 75% of students on grade level! Double the number of students from the 90% / 20% scenario. Wait...we spend hundreds of thousands of dollars to move kids up, but keeping kids has a longer lasting impact? I’m sure you’re probably thinking that it should be easy or at least easier to keep students at grade level than move kids up who fall behind. Then, why aren’t we doing a better job of it? It certainly doesn't seem to be from lack of trying or is it? That doesn't mean we should not focus time and energy on moving kids to on-grade level who are below...they deserve it. It means we need to do a better job with our kids on-grade level so more don't end up below where it's so much harder to pull them up.
Well then, we have to work harder to move those kids up that are below-grade level! So, let's change our goal...if we try to maintain that 90% and move up 40% of the below-grade level students, then we will definitely change our 12th grade outcomes, right? That would be truly amazing...every year moving up 40% of students that are below grade level to on-grade level. We would probably be close to 100% by 12th grade....NOPE! ONLY 46% WOULD BE ON GRADE LEVEL BY 12TH GRADE! Let's think about this a little bit closer. Imagine that our 9th grade teachers in a school of 1,000 had 450 kids below-grade level and managed to get 180 on-grade level by the end of the year...wouldn't that be amazing! We would have 180 more graduates that would be so much better prepared for college and careers. It would impact our local economy by millions of dollars! But, every year it gets so much harder to move a student from below-grade level to on-grade level.
Let's flip it around…if we could maintain 98% at grade level and move 20% each year up from below to on by the end of the year. By the end of 12th grade, we would have 75% of students on grade level! Double the number of students from the 90% / 20% scenario. Wait...we spend hundreds of thousands of dollars to move kids up, but keeping kids has a longer lasting impact? I’m sure you’re probably thinking that it should be easy or at least easier to keep students at grade level than move kids up who fall behind. Then, why aren’t we doing a better job of it? It certainly doesn't seem to be from lack of trying or is it? That doesn't mean we should not focus time and energy on moving kids to on-grade level who are below...they deserve it. It means we need to do a better job with our kids on-grade level so more don't end up below where it's so much harder to pull them up.
(For all the data junkies out there who are going back to check my math….here is a link to the spreadsheet that I used to arrive at these conclusions. It’s not overly complex, but shows you the impact of setting the goal of 90%).
Ok, what’s the moral of the story Dr. Smarty Pants? I think you already know...I hope I'm being Captain Obvious here. We have to strengthen our core, we have to make sure that kids don’t drop off grade level, we have to commit to monitoring data along the way to make sure that NOONE falls through the cracks. We have to get them on track early and keep them there!
Back to 90%….now you know that it’s really not good enough at all in student achievement. This is not basketball. Our stakes are much higher! Our kids deserve better, our communities deserve better...Let’s strive to keep 98% of our students on grade level that start on grade level and move at least 20% of our lowest performing kids! Set our goals high. If we can at least achieve that goal, we would be on the road to some serious success!
Back to 90%….now you know that it’s really not good enough at all in student achievement. This is not basketball. Our stakes are much higher! Our kids deserve better, our communities deserve better...Let’s strive to keep 98% of our students on grade level that start on grade level and move at least 20% of our lowest performing kids! Set our goals high. If we can at least achieve that goal, we would be on the road to some serious success!